Fleets Need to Monitor Shifts in Risk Factors, Volume, and Driving Habits to Minimize Accidents

While severe collisions declined last year, various factors continue to influence commercial driving behavior. Seasonal changes and distractions are expected, but geopolitical factors also contribute to unpredictable freight patterns, shifting driving hazards inland.

Utilizing dashcam data from commercial drivers across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, Motive’s AI Road Safety Report provides insights into how collision patterns evolved over the past year.

The data science team at Motive analyzed AI-detected safety events captured in an impressive 1.2 billion hours of video to pinpoint when, where, and why collisions occurred from 2024 to 2025.

The good news is that the number of severe collisions fell in 2025. Incidents involving injuries, tow-aways, and fatalities are trending 9.5% lower, with reported injuries down by 7.7% year-over-year. This trend is particularly focused on long-haul, heavy-duty interstate fleets that transport goods nationwide.

The report highlights that collision trends vary significantly by state. Larger, higher-volume states experienced notable year-over-year declines in collisions, including:

• Florida: 42.6% reduction
• North Carolina: 29.8% reduction
• New Jersey: 24.8% reduction

These states represent major freight corridors, suggesting that improvements in safety practices and early risk detection can have a substantial impact at scale.

Conversely, some smaller states saw year-over-year increases in reported collisions, such as:

• Rhode Island: 24.8% increase
• Montana: 13.5% increase
• Maine: 11.3% increase

These states typically have lower overall vehicle volumes and baseline collision rates, which can amplify percentage changes. For instance, in Rhode Island, although total collisions increased, no fatal collisions were reported, indicating a decline in overall severity despite a rise in incident counts.

While risky driving behavior persists, the implementation of AI-powered driver safety tools has proven effective in identifying risky behaviors before crashes occur. The research found that for every collision, organizations observed seven near-collisions, which help in coaching drivers on safer practices.

Aggressive driving remains one of the most significant risk factors and a primary predictor of collisions. Industries such as waste and recycling, field services, utilities, construction, and oil and gas reported the highest collision rates per million miles.

Key findings from the report include:

• Preliminary data indicates that 2025 saw fewer road fatalities, but risks remain uneven, concentrated by time of day, season, and operating environment.
• Late-night driving is more hazardous than rush hour, with collision risk peaking at 3 a.m., tripling compared to midday.
• Behavior—not road conditions or mileage—dominates collision risk, with drowsiness, distraction, and aggressive driving consistently preceding incidents.
• Transportation and logistics fleets, despite driving the most miles, have the lowest overall collision rates, highlighting that the operating environment is more critical than distance traveled.
• Cell phone use ranks among the top five risky behaviors linked to collisions, peaking in late afternoons, particularly among drivers in agriculture.
• Smoking while driving occurs nearly 4,000 times a day, emerging as a significant yet often underestimated source of distraction.
• Despite increased trade activity and congestion around ports and border crossings due to 2025 tariff changes, collision rates in those areas remained stable, indicating that risk often shifts inland.

Looking ahead to 2026, predictions suggest:

• AI-powered, real-time intervention will become the primary driver of collision reduction, with collision rates peaking in Q1 due to winter weather and shorter daylight.
• Driver behavior will continue to be the most significant safety risk, with drowsiness, cell phone use, and smoking outweighing road conditions as predictors of collisions.
• Near-collisions will emerge as the most crucial leading safety indicator, replacing collisions as the primary metric for managing risk.
• Geopolitical and trade volatility will keep shifting freight patterns, pushing risk inland and into overnight corridors.
• Safety gaps will widen across industries, with agriculture, waste & recycling, and field services experiencing the most significant AI-driven safety gains.
• One-size-fits-all safety programs will continue to underperform, leading organizations to demand AI tailored to their specific routes, schedules, and operating environments.
• Geography, congestion, weather, and job type will become more critical than mileage in predicting collision risk.

“Understanding where risk moves—not just where freight volumes increase—will be critical in the year ahead,” according to Motive AI.

The report also incorporates publicly available data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT).

Topics
Personal Auto

While severe collisions declined last year, various factors continue to influence commercial driving behavior. Seasonal changes and distractions are expected, but geopolitical factors also contribute to unpredictable freight patterns, shifting driving hazards inland.

Utilizing dashcam data from commercial drivers across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, Motive’s AI Road Safety Report provides insights into how collision patterns evolved over the past year.

The data science team at Motive analyzed AI-detected safety events captured in an impressive 1.2 billion hours of video to pinpoint when, where, and why collisions occurred from 2024 to 2025.

The good news is that the number of severe collisions fell in 2025. Incidents involving injuries, tow-aways, and fatalities are trending 9.5% lower, with reported injuries down by 7.7% year-over-year. This trend is particularly focused on long-haul, heavy-duty interstate fleets that transport goods nationwide.

The report highlights that collision trends vary significantly by state. Larger, higher-volume states experienced notable year-over-year declines in collisions, including:

• Florida: 42.6% reduction
• North Carolina: 29.8% reduction
• New Jersey: 24.8% reduction

These states represent major freight corridors, suggesting that improvements in safety practices and early risk detection can have a substantial impact at scale.

Conversely, some smaller states saw year-over-year increases in reported collisions, such as:

• Rhode Island: 24.8% increase
• Montana: 13.5% increase
• Maine: 11.3% increase

These states typically have lower overall vehicle volumes and baseline collision rates, which can amplify percentage changes. For instance, in Rhode Island, although total collisions increased, no fatal collisions were reported, indicating a decline in overall severity despite a rise in incident counts.

While risky driving behavior persists, the implementation of AI-powered driver safety tools has proven effective in identifying risky behaviors before crashes occur. The research found that for every collision, organizations observed seven near-collisions, which help in coaching drivers on safer practices.

Aggressive driving remains one of the most significant risk factors and a primary predictor of collisions. Industries such as waste and recycling, field services, utilities, construction, and oil and gas reported the highest collision rates per million miles.

Key findings from the report include:

• Preliminary data indicates that 2025 saw fewer road fatalities, but risks remain uneven, concentrated by time of day, season, and operating environment.
• Late-night driving is more hazardous than rush hour, with collision risk peaking at 3 a.m., tripling compared to midday.
• Behavior—not road conditions or mileage—dominates collision risk, with drowsiness, distraction, and aggressive driving consistently preceding incidents.
• Transportation and logistics fleets, despite driving the most miles, have the lowest overall collision rates, highlighting that the operating environment is more critical than distance traveled.
• Cell phone use ranks among the top five risky behaviors linked to collisions, peaking in late afternoons, particularly among drivers in agriculture.
• Smoking while driving occurs nearly 4,000 times a day, emerging as a significant yet often underestimated source of distraction.
• Despite increased trade activity and congestion around ports and border crossings due to 2025 tariff changes, collision rates in those areas remained stable, indicating that risk often shifts inland.

Looking ahead to 2026, predictions suggest:

• AI-powered, real-time intervention will become the primary driver of collision reduction, with collision rates peaking in Q1 due to winter weather and shorter daylight.
• Driver behavior will continue to be the most significant safety risk, with drowsiness, cell phone use, and smoking outweighing road conditions as predictors of collisions.
• Near-collisions will emerge as the most crucial leading safety indicator, replacing collisions as the primary metric for managing risk.
• Geopolitical and trade volatility will keep shifting freight patterns, pushing risk inland and into overnight corridors.
• Safety gaps will widen across industries, with agriculture, waste & recycling, and field services experiencing the most significant AI-driven safety gains.
• One-size-fits-all safety programs will continue to underperform, leading organizations to demand AI tailored to their specific routes, schedules, and operating environments.
• Geography, congestion, weather, and job type will become more critical than mileage in predicting collision risk.

“Understanding where risk moves—not just where freight volumes increase—will be critical in the year ahead,” according to Motive AI.

The report also incorporates publicly available data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT).

Topics
Personal Auto