November Jobs Report: US Economy Gains 50K Jobs Despite Economic Uncertainty
Barron’s Investor Circle newsletter editor Josh Schafer discusses what to expect from the delayed November jobs and inflation reports on ‘Varney & Co.’
The U.S. economy added jobs in November, despite ongoing economic uncertainty that has dampened labor market activity.
According to a report from the Labor Department released on Tuesday, employers added 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing the 50,000 jobs estimated by economists surveyed by LSEG.
However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.4%. This marks the highest unemployment rate since September 2021.
Revisions to previous months’ employment figures revealed a downward trend. August’s employment was adjusted from a loss of 4,000 jobs to a loss of 26,000 jobs, while September’s figures were revised down from a gain of 119,000 jobs to 108,000 jobs. Collectively, employment in August and September was 33,000 jobs lower than initially reported.
POWELL ACKNOWLEDGES LABOR MARKET SLOWDOWN BUT REJECTS FEARS OF STEEP DECLINE
Originally scheduled for release on December 5, November’s jobs report was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown that affected the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data collection. This shutdown also prevented the release of the October jobs report, although some October data was included in the latest report.
In October, employment declined by 105,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 52,000 jobs while the government sector lost 157,000 jobs. Federal workers who accepted deferred buyouts earlier in the year were counted as employed until their official departure in October.
The BLS was unable to produce an unemployment rate for October.
FED DELIVERS THIRD STRAIGHT RATE CUT BUT ‘DOT PLOT’ PROJECTS JUST ONE CUT IN 2026
The construction sector saw notable job gains in November after employment was little changed over the past year. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Private payrolls added 69,000 jobs in November, exceeding the LSEG estimate of 45,000. Meanwhile, government payrolls decreased by 5,000 jobs, following a larger decline in October. This included a loss of 6,000 federal jobs and 2,000 local government jobs, partially offset by the addition of 3,000 state government jobs.
The manufacturing sector lost 5,000 jobs in November, aligning with economists’ expectations. In contrast, healthcare businesses added 46,300 jobs, consistent with the average monthly gain of 39,000 over the previous year. These gains were distributed across ambulatory healthcare services (+24,000), hospitals (+11,400), and nursing and residential care facilities (+10,900).
The construction industry experienced a boost, adding 28,000 jobs in November after a year of minimal change. Most gains were among nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+18,700).
Social assistance firms added 17,700 jobs, while the transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 17,700 jobs.
US LAYOFFS SOAR PAST 1.1M IN 2025, HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE PANDEMIC
The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5% in November, showing little change over the past year. The number of long-term unemployed, defined as those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was steady at 1.9 million, accounting for 24.3% of all unemployed individuals.
Additionally, the number of people employed part-time for economic reasons rose to 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals preferred full-time employment but faced reduced hours or were unable to secure full-time jobs.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the government shutdown’s impact on the upcoming jobs report after last week’s Fed meeting. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
Laura Ullrich, director of economic research for the Indeed Hiring Lab, remarked that this “incomplete and unconventional jobs report may always need an asterisk attached to it, but it still paints a sobering picture of a job market that may officially be turning frigid after a prolonged cooling period.”
She added, “The combined two-month report shows notable declines in employment in October as tens of thousands of government employees who had remained on payrolls through the summer finally came off as their buyout deals took effect.”
Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that the “Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today’s report given data disruptions.” He noted that Chair Powell had commented last week that the report would likely be affected by shutdown-related distortions, making it a less reliable gauge of the labor market’s health than usual. The report on December’s employment data, set for release in early January, will likely provide a more meaningful indicator for the Fed in determining the near-term trajectory.
The release of November’s employment data, along with the partial October figures, did little to alter market expectations regarding the Fed’s decision to maintain rates at its February meeting. The probability of rates remaining in the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% was 75.6% as of Tuesday morning, unchanged from the previous day and up from 69.8% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Barron’s Investor Circle newsletter editor Josh Schafer discusses what to expect from the delayed November jobs and inflation reports on ‘Varney & Co.’
The U.S. economy added jobs in November, despite ongoing economic uncertainty that has dampened labor market activity.
According to a report from the Labor Department released on Tuesday, employers added 64,000 jobs in November, surpassing the 50,000 jobs estimated by economists surveyed by LSEG.
However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.4%. This marks the highest unemployment rate since September 2021.
Revisions to previous months’ employment figures revealed a downward trend. August’s employment was adjusted from a loss of 4,000 jobs to a loss of 26,000 jobs, while September’s figures were revised down from a gain of 119,000 jobs to 108,000 jobs. Collectively, employment in August and September was 33,000 jobs lower than initially reported.
POWELL ACKNOWLEDGES LABOR MARKET SLOWDOWN BUT REJECTS FEARS OF STEEP DECLINE
Originally scheduled for release on December 5, November’s jobs report was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown that affected the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data collection. This shutdown also prevented the release of the October jobs report, although some October data was included in the latest report.
In October, employment declined by 105,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 52,000 jobs while the government sector lost 157,000 jobs. Federal workers who accepted deferred buyouts earlier in the year were counted as employed until their official departure in October.
The BLS was unable to produce an unemployment rate for October.
FED DELIVERS THIRD STRAIGHT RATE CUT BUT ‘DOT PLOT’ PROJECTS JUST ONE CUT IN 2026
The construction sector saw notable job gains in November after employment was little changed over the past year. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Private payrolls added 69,000 jobs in November, exceeding the LSEG estimate of 45,000. Meanwhile, government payrolls decreased by 5,000 jobs, following a larger decline in October. This included a loss of 6,000 federal jobs and 2,000 local government jobs, partially offset by the addition of 3,000 state government jobs.
The manufacturing sector lost 5,000 jobs in November, aligning with economists’ expectations. In contrast, healthcare businesses added 46,300 jobs, consistent with the average monthly gain of 39,000 over the previous year. These gains were distributed across ambulatory healthcare services (+24,000), hospitals (+11,400), and nursing and residential care facilities (+10,900).
The construction industry experienced a boost, adding 28,000 jobs in November after a year of minimal change. Most gains were among nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+18,700).
Social assistance firms added 17,700 jobs, while the transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 17,700 jobs.
US LAYOFFS SOAR PAST 1.1M IN 2025, HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE PANDEMIC
The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5% in November, showing little change over the past year. The number of long-term unemployed, defined as those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was steady at 1.9 million, accounting for 24.3% of all unemployed individuals.
Additionally, the number of people employed part-time for economic reasons rose to 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals preferred full-time employment but faced reduced hours or were unable to secure full-time jobs.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the government shutdown’s impact on the upcoming jobs report after last week’s Fed meeting. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
Laura Ullrich, director of economic research for the Indeed Hiring Lab, remarked that this “incomplete and unconventional jobs report may always need an asterisk attached to it, but it still paints a sobering picture of a job market that may officially be turning frigid after a prolonged cooling period.”
She added, “The combined two-month report shows notable declines in employment in October as tens of thousands of government employees who had remained on payrolls through the summer finally came off as their buyout deals took effect.”
Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, stated that the “Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today’s report given data disruptions.” He noted that Chair Powell had commented last week that the report would likely be affected by shutdown-related distortions, making it a less reliable gauge of the labor market’s health than usual. The report on December’s employment data, set for release in early January, will likely provide a more meaningful indicator for the Fed in determining the near-term trajectory.
The release of November’s employment data, along with the partial October figures, did little to alter market expectations regarding the Fed’s decision to maintain rates at its February meeting. The probability of rates remaining in the current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% was 75.6% as of Tuesday morning, unchanged from the previous day and up from 69.8% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
