Retail Mergers and IPOs Expected to Rise as Dealmakers Navigate Post-Tariff Landscape

Dealmakers are anticipating a surge in mergers and IPOs within the retail and consumer goods sectors this year. This optimism comes after a challenging first half of 2025, during which punitive tariffs on imports to the U.S. significantly hampered industry activity.

Several prominent national restaurant and convenience store chains are gearing up for IPOs. Notable mentions include the organic baby food company Once Upon a Farm, the auto repair firm Caliber Holdings backed by Hellman & Friedman, and Bob’s Discount Furniture, owned by Bain Capital. This information was shared by over two dozen CEOs, M&A advisors, and private equity investors who gathered at the ICR Conference in Orlando, Florida, this week.

“The number of high-quality companies that are in queue to go public in 2026 is higher than we’ve seen since 2021,” stated Ben Frost, Goldman Sachs’ global co-head of the consumer retail group, in an interview. “The question is whether this means more will actually go public. If it does, private investors will have the opportunity to exit their investments in a more regular manner, which would boost private equity activity.”

Frost was among the more than 3,000 attendees at the annual conference, where executives from major companies like Walmart, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s presented. Meanwhile, bankers, lawyers, and private equity investors engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations to broker deals and secure clients.

The positive atmosphere at the conference marked a significant turnaround from the previous spring, when U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements sent markets into a tailspin, stalling numerous consumer and retail deals. However, the latter half of the year witnessed a resurgence in activity, highlighted by several mega deals, including Kimberly-Clark’s nearly $50 billion acquisition of Kenvue, announced in November.

“Companies are still very much focused on growth and synergies. They are considering larger deals than they have been willing to pursue in recent years. The second half of last year marked the beginning of this trend,” Frost noted.

In a notable shift, Kraft Heinz announced in September its plans to split into two companies, effectively unwinding its 2015 merger. This came shortly after Keurig Dr Pepper agreed to acquire JDE Peet’s for $18 billion, with intentions to separate coffee and non-coffee beverages into distinct entities. In the apparel sector, Gildan Activewear made headlines by acquiring Hanesbrands for $2.2 billion.

Activist investors may also drive more deals and corporate breakups in these sectors, according to Audra Cohen, co-head of the consumer and retail group at Sullivan & Cromwell. While corporate agitators have recently taken stakes in companies like Lululemon Athletica and Target, they have yet to push for M&A. Lululemon even hosted a morning yoga class, allowing its management team to engage with analysts and investors at the conference.

Meanwhile, private equity buyers are increasingly outbidding companies for certain deals. Ellie Rubenstein, co-founder of Manna Tree Partners, shared insights with Reuters, noting that her firm recently sold its cottage cheese brand, Good Culture, to a larger consumer-focused firm, L Catterton.

“Many of these brands have become lost within larger corporations, and consumers are not responding positively. We may see a wave of corporate carveouts this year,” Rubenstein remarked in an interview following her keynote address. She also interviewed her father, David Rubenstein, co-founder of Carlyle, on stage at the conference.

Topics
Mergers & Acquisitions

Dealmakers are anticipating a surge in mergers and IPOs within the retail and consumer goods sectors this year. This optimism comes after a challenging first half of 2025, during which punitive tariffs on imports to the U.S. significantly hampered industry activity.

Several prominent national restaurant and convenience store chains are gearing up for IPOs. Notable mentions include the organic baby food company Once Upon a Farm, the auto repair firm Caliber Holdings backed by Hellman & Friedman, and Bob’s Discount Furniture, owned by Bain Capital. This information was shared by over two dozen CEOs, M&A advisors, and private equity investors who gathered at the ICR Conference in Orlando, Florida, this week.

“The number of high-quality companies that are in queue to go public in 2026 is higher than we’ve seen since 2021,” stated Ben Frost, Goldman Sachs’ global co-head of the consumer retail group, in an interview. “The question is whether this means more will actually go public. If it does, private investors will have the opportunity to exit their investments in a more regular manner, which would boost private equity activity.”

Frost was among the more than 3,000 attendees at the annual conference, where executives from major companies like Walmart, Shake Shack, and Jersey Mike’s presented. Meanwhile, bankers, lawyers, and private equity investors engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations to broker deals and secure clients.

The positive atmosphere at the conference marked a significant turnaround from the previous spring, when U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements sent markets into a tailspin, stalling numerous consumer and retail deals. However, the latter half of the year witnessed a resurgence in activity, highlighted by several mega deals, including Kimberly-Clark’s nearly $50 billion acquisition of Kenvue, announced in November.

“Companies are still very much focused on growth and synergies. They are considering larger deals than they have been willing to pursue in recent years. The second half of last year marked the beginning of this trend,” Frost noted.

In a notable shift, Kraft Heinz announced in September its plans to split into two companies, effectively unwinding its 2015 merger. This came shortly after Keurig Dr Pepper agreed to acquire JDE Peet’s for $18 billion, with intentions to separate coffee and non-coffee beverages into distinct entities. In the apparel sector, Gildan Activewear made headlines by acquiring Hanesbrands for $2.2 billion.

Activist investors may also drive more deals and corporate breakups in these sectors, according to Audra Cohen, co-head of the consumer and retail group at Sullivan & Cromwell. While corporate agitators have recently taken stakes in companies like Lululemon Athletica and Target, they have yet to push for M&A. Lululemon even hosted a morning yoga class, allowing its management team to engage with analysts and investors at the conference.

Meanwhile, private equity buyers are increasingly outbidding companies for certain deals. Ellie Rubenstein, co-founder of Manna Tree Partners, shared insights with Reuters, noting that her firm recently sold its cottage cheese brand, Good Culture, to a larger consumer-focused firm, L Catterton.

“Many of these brands have become lost within larger corporations, and consumers are not responding positively. We may see a wave of corporate carveouts this year,” Rubenstein remarked in an interview following her keynote address. She also interviewed her father, David Rubenstein, co-founder of Carlyle, on stage at the conference.

Topics
Mergers & Acquisitions