Traders Doubt Supreme Court Will Support President Trump’s Tariffs
Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General John Yoo analyzes the Supreme Court’s delay on President Donald Trump’s tariffs and discusses the complexities of a potential refund process on ‘Kudlow.’
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the nation’s highest court is unlikely to rule in favor of President Donald Trump‘s tariffs. Recent data from Kalshi indicates that traders now assign a nearly 32% chance that the Supreme Court will support Trump’s tariff plan. This figure has dropped by 14 points following oral arguments in November, which suggested skepticism from the justices.
The trading volume on Kalshi has surpassed $3 million, reflecting significant interest in the outcome of this case.
TRUMP DEFENDS TARIFFS, SAYS US HAS BEEN ‘THE KING OF BEING SCREWED’ BY TRADE IMBALANCE
Online prediction market Kalshi tracks if the Supreme Court will side with President Donald Trump on tariffs. (Kalshi)
Polymarket reflects a similar sentiment, with odds currently at 28%, a decrease of 9 points over the same timeframe. The trading volume on Polymarket is slightly above $2.4 million.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager real money on a variety of topics, ranging from politics and economic policies to sports and pop culture, effectively turning public sentiment into tradable market odds.
TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND $2K CHECKS FOR AMERICANS, LOWER NATION’S $38T DEBT
Online prediction market Polymarket tracks if the Supreme Court will side with President Donald Trump on tariffs. (Polymarket)
The Supreme Court ruling, anticipated this week, arrives at a time when tariff revenue—and the economic implications tied to it—have surged to record levels.
Since Trump introduced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, monthly collections have escalated from $23.9 billion in May to $31.6 billion in September. The total duty revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, which concluded on September 30, according to the Treasury Department’s Customs and Certain Excise Taxes report.
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President Donald Trump has made tariff revenue a key part of his economic agenda. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
This upward trend has continued into the new fiscal year, with $99.5 billion collected since October 1, as Treasury data shows.
On Monday, Trump expressed on Truth Social that if the Supreme Court does not side with his administration, the U.S. would be “screwed.”
Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General John Yoo analyzes the Supreme Court’s delay on President Donald Trump’s tariffs and discusses the complexities of a potential refund process on ‘Kudlow.’
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are betting that the nation’s highest court is unlikely to rule in favor of President Donald Trump‘s tariffs. Recent data from Kalshi indicates that traders now assign a nearly 32% chance that the Supreme Court will support Trump’s tariff plan. This figure has dropped by 14 points following oral arguments in November, which suggested skepticism from the justices.
The trading volume on Kalshi has surpassed $3 million, reflecting significant interest in the outcome of this case.
TRUMP DEFENDS TARIFFS, SAYS US HAS BEEN ‘THE KING OF BEING SCREWED’ BY TRADE IMBALANCE
Online prediction market Kalshi tracks if the Supreme Court will side with President Donald Trump on tariffs. (Kalshi)
Polymarket reflects a similar sentiment, with odds currently at 28%, a decrease of 9 points over the same timeframe. The trading volume on Polymarket is slightly above $2.4 million.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager real money on a variety of topics, ranging from politics and economic policies to sports and pop culture, effectively turning public sentiment into tradable market odds.
TRUMP SAYS TARIFF REVENUE TO FUND $2K CHECKS FOR AMERICANS, LOWER NATION’S $38T DEBT
Online prediction market Polymarket tracks if the Supreme Court will side with President Donald Trump on tariffs. (Polymarket)
The Supreme Court ruling, anticipated this week, arrives at a time when tariff revenue—and the economic implications tied to it—have surged to record levels.
Since Trump introduced his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, monthly collections have escalated from $23.9 billion in May to $31.6 billion in September. The total duty revenue reached $215.2 billion in fiscal year 2025, which concluded on September 30, according to the Treasury Department’s Customs and Certain Excise Taxes report.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
President Donald Trump has made tariff revenue a key part of his economic agenda. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
This upward trend has continued into the new fiscal year, with $99.5 billion collected since October 1, as Treasury data shows.
On Monday, Trump expressed on Truth Social that if the Supreme Court does not side with his administration, the U.S. would be “screwed.”
