Prediction Market Traders Increase Likelihood of Government Shutdown to 80%
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to discuss the deadly ICE shooting in Minneapolis, escalating tensions over sanctuary city policies, and calls for greater cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly betting that the federal government will shut down this weekend. According to Kalshi’s market data, traders now assign a 75% chance that the shutdown will begin on Saturday, marking a significant rise of 64 percentage points over the last two days.
The trading volume on Kalshi, which reflects the total dollar amount wagered, currently stands at just over $8.6 million. This surge in betting activity indicates heightened concern among traders regarding the impending government shutdown.
SENATE DEMOCRATS THREATEN SHUTDOWN BY BLOCKING DHS FUNDING AFTER MINNESOTA ICE SHOOTING
A screenshot of a Kalshi bet on if the U.S. government will shut down on Saturday. (Kalshi)
On the other hand, traders on Polymarket are placing the odds even higher at 79%, which is an increase of 70 percentage points in the same timeframe. Approximately $8.5 million has been wagered on this prediction, further illustrating the growing anxiety surrounding the potential shutdown.
While the odds on these platforms do not serve as formal forecasts, they provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations regarding the government’s operational status.
A screenshot of a Polymarket bet on whether the U.S. government will shut down on Saturday. (Polymarket)
Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 21 shutdowns since 1976. The longest shutdown lasted 43 days and was instigated by Senate Democrats who demanded negotiations with Republicans and President Donald Trump regarding expiring Obamacare subsidies.
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The U.S. Capitol is seen after a winter storm swept through the region in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 26, 2026. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)
The latest developments come as Senate Democrats threaten to withhold funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) following the tragic death of a second U.S. citizen in Minnesota. On Saturday, 37-year-old Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a Minneapolis nurse, was fatally shot by a U.S. Border Patrol agent during a federal immigration enforcement operation.
DHS officials reported that Pretti approached agents while armed with a 9mm pistol and two magazines, and “violently resisted” when officers attempted to disarm him, prompting one agent to fire. He was shot multiple times and pronounced dead at the scene. State officials later confirmed that Pretti had a lawful permit to carry the firearm.
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to discuss the deadly ICE shooting in Minneapolis, escalating tensions over sanctuary city policies, and calls for greater cooperation with federal immigration enforcement.
Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are increasingly betting that the federal government will shut down this weekend. According to Kalshi’s market data, traders now assign a 75% chance that the shutdown will begin on Saturday, marking a significant rise of 64 percentage points over the last two days.
The trading volume on Kalshi, which reflects the total dollar amount wagered, currently stands at just over $8.6 million. This surge in betting activity indicates heightened concern among traders regarding the impending government shutdown.
SENATE DEMOCRATS THREATEN SHUTDOWN BY BLOCKING DHS FUNDING AFTER MINNESOTA ICE SHOOTING
A screenshot of a Kalshi bet on if the U.S. government will shut down on Saturday. (Kalshi)
On the other hand, traders on Polymarket are placing the odds even higher at 79%, which is an increase of 70 percentage points in the same timeframe. Approximately $8.5 million has been wagered on this prediction, further illustrating the growing anxiety surrounding the potential shutdown.
While the odds on these platforms do not serve as formal forecasts, they provide a real-time snapshot of trader expectations regarding the government’s operational status.
A screenshot of a Polymarket bet on whether the U.S. government will shut down on Saturday. (Polymarket)
Historically, the U.S. government has experienced 21 shutdowns since 1976. The longest shutdown lasted 43 days and was instigated by Senate Democrats who demanded negotiations with Republicans and President Donald Trump regarding expiring Obamacare subsidies.
GET FOX BUSINESS ON THE GO BY CLICKING HERE
The U.S. Capitol is seen after a winter storm swept through the region in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 26, 2026. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)
The latest developments come as Senate Democrats threaten to withhold funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) following the tragic death of a second U.S. citizen in Minnesota. On Saturday, 37-year-old Alex Jeffrey Pretti, a Minneapolis nurse, was fatally shot by a U.S. Border Patrol agent during a federal immigration enforcement operation.
DHS officials reported that Pretti approached agents while armed with a 9mm pistol and two magazines, and “violently resisted” when officers attempted to disarm him, prompting one agent to fire. He was shot multiple times and pronounced dead at the scene. State officials later confirmed that Pretti had a lawful permit to carry the firearm.
